Forecast hour +2
Tue 15 Sep, 04:10
Generated 02:17Weather detail
- Forecast assessment
- Likely unsuitable because expected wind is 18.4 kt and gusts may reach 28.4 kt and upper wind range reaches 20.8 kt.
- Wind change
- Steady (-0.8 kt)
- Direction-change risk
- 100%
- Weather regime
- Showery / unstable
- Provider agreement
- Significant disagreementSource wind spread 1.1 kt; direction spread 81°.
- Selected sources
- Corrected 100%
Gust probability
18+ kt99%
20+ kt99%
25+ kt95%
30+ kt73%
TBSC course selection
Short course285° magnetic
Why this course set?Short selected because the forecast mean is 18.4 kt and gust 28.4 kt, outside the Force 3-4 band; the card uses Short for Force 1-2 or Force 5 conditions.The 282 degree true forecast converts to approximately 283 degrees magnetic and uses the nearest 15 degree matrix column: 285 degrees.
| Fleet | Course |
|---|---|
| Oppy 2 | 1Y |
| Optimist | 2 |
| Feva | 7 |
| Slow Misc | 7 |
| Myth | 7 |
| Misc | 19 |
| 1/2 Rater | 19 |
| Start | G/W |
Wind-based selection; shorten for poor visibility, rough sea or other race-management concerns.
Trearddur Bay Sailing Club
Sailing area
Tue 15 Sep, 04:10 · Wind WNW 282 deg T at 18.4 kt, gust 28.4 kt · Short course, 285 deg magnetic
Course overlay ready
Course 1YOppy 2Route diagram referenced as page 27 but not included in the supplied scan
Why: The 2026 selector assigns Course 1Y to Oppy 2 for this course length and magnetic-bearing column. Its route refers to page 27, which was not included in the supplied scan.
Course 2Optimist4 rounds · Outer Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 285 degrees magnetic assigns Course 2 to Optimist. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Outer Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
Course 7Feva2 rounds · Green Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 285 degrees magnetic assigns Course 7 to Feva. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Green Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
Course 7Slow Misc, Myth2 rounds · Outer Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 285 degrees magnetic assigns Course 7 to Slow Misc, Myth. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Outer Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
Course 19Misc1.5 rounds · Green Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 285 degrees magnetic assigns Course 19 to Misc. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Green Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
Course 191/2 Rater1.5 rounds · Inner Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 285 degrees magnetic assigns Course 19 to 1/2 Rater. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Inner Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
The blue wind arrow points downwind; its label states the direction the wind comes from. Each coloured course begins at the midpoint of its selected Red or G/W start line and ends at the midpoint of the white finish line. Coloured arrowheads show the order of travel. Lines show the mark sequence once; follow the number of rounds in the key. Published port/starboard rounding instructions remain authoritative.
Forecast sources
| Source | Wind | Gust | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Local | 19.2 kt | 34.8 kt | SSW 201° |
| Corrected | 18.4 kt | 28.4 kt | WNW 282° |
| Historical Differential | 19.6 kt | 24.9 kt | WNW 282° |
| Met Office | 18.7 kt | 27.3 kt | WNW 282° |
| Persistence | 19.2 kt | 34.8 kt | SSW 201° |
| Residual Shadow | 21.1 kt | 29.3 kt | WNW 282° |
Guidance only. The race officer's decision, current observations, sea state, visibility, tide, official warnings and local safety procedures take precedence over this experimental forecast.