Forecast hour +2
Fri 30 Oct, 08:10
Generated 06:17Weather detail
- Forecast assessment
- Marginal because upper wind range reaches 20.6 kt.
- Wind change
- Steady (1.1 kt)
- Direction-change risk
- 0%
- Weather regime
- Showery / unstable
- Provider agreement
- Moderate agreementSource wind spread 2.3 kt; direction spread 12°.
- Selected sources
- Local 85%Persistence 15%
Gust probability
18+ kt95%
20+ kt87%
25+ kt34%
30+ kt3%
TBSC course selection
Short course150° magnetic
Why this course set?Short selected because the forecast mean is 14.9 kt and gust 22.5 kt, outside the Force 3-4 band; the card uses Short for Force 1-2 or Force 5 conditions.The 153 degree true forecast converts to approximately 154 degrees magnetic and uses the nearest 15 degree matrix column: 150 degrees.
| Fleet | Course |
|---|---|
| Oppy 2 | 1Y |
| Optimist | 3 |
| Feva | 12 |
| Slow Misc | 12 |
| Myth | 13 |
| Misc | 13 |
| 1/2 Rater | 14R reverse |
| Start | G/W |
Wind-based selection; shorten for poor visibility, rough sea or other race-management concerns.
Trearddur Bay Sailing Club
Sailing area
Fri 30 Oct, 08:10 · Wind SSE 153 deg T at 14.9 kt, gust 22.5 kt · Short course, 150 deg magnetic
Course overlay ready
Course 1YOppy 2Route diagram referenced as page 27 but not included in the supplied scan
Why: The 2026 selector assigns Course 1Y to Oppy 2 for this course length and magnetic-bearing column. Its route refers to page 27, which was not included in the supplied scan.
Course 3Optimist4 rounds · Outer Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 150 degrees magnetic assigns Course 3 to Optimist. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Outer Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
Course 12Feva4 rounds · Green Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 150 degrees magnetic assigns Course 12 to Feva. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Green Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
Course 12Slow Misc4 rounds · Outer Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 150 degrees magnetic assigns Course 12 to Slow Misc. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Outer Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
Course 13Myth3 rounds · Outer Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 150 degrees magnetic assigns Course 13 to Myth. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Outer Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
Course 13Misc3 rounds · Green Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 150 degrees magnetic assigns Course 13 to Misc. The normal published mark sequence applies. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Green Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
Course 14R1/2 Rater1.5 rounds · Inner Bay · start G/W
Why: The Short matrix at 150 degrees magnetic assigns Course 14R to 1/2 Rater. The R suffix selects the published reverse mark sequence. The route starts at the midpoint of the G/W line, uses Inner Bay as its Bay Mark and finishes at the midpoint of the white line.
The blue wind arrow points downwind; its label states the direction the wind comes from. Each coloured course begins at the midpoint of its selected Red or G/W start line and ends at the midpoint of the white finish line. Coloured arrowheads show the order of travel. Lines show the mark sequence once; follow the number of rounds in the key. Published port/starboard rounding instructions remain authoritative.
Forecast sources
| Source | Wind | Gust | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Local | 13.8 kt | 21.7 kt | SSE 153° |
| Historical Differential | 11.5 kt | 19.0 kt | SSE 165° |
| Met Office | 12.5 kt | 21.4 kt | SSE 165° |
| Persistence | 13.8 kt | 21.7 kt | SSE 153° |
| Residual Shadow | 12.9 kt | 22.4 kt | SSE 165° |
Guidance only. The race officer's decision, current observations, sea state, visibility, tide, official warnings and local safety procedures take precedence over this experimental forecast.