Weather Station Status
This website uses WeeWX
for weather conditions reporting.
Latest weather observation: 30/10/2026 06:25.
| Component | Status | Age h:m:s |
Latest update time as of 30/10/2026 06:26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Live WeeWX observations | Current | 0:00:48 | 30/10/2026 06:25 |
| Met Office forecast | Current | 0:21:04 | 30/10/2026 06:05 |
| Trearddur Bay tide data | Current | 6:25:24 | 30/10/2026 00:00 |
| Vestaboard weather update | NOT Current | 7:56:04 | > 2:00:00 29/10/2026 22:30 |
| Automated ntfy monitoring | Current | 0:01:05 | 30/10/2026 06:25 |
| Web configuration backup | Current | 4:11:00 | 30/10/2026 02:15 |
| WeeWX configuration backup | Current | 3:56:05 | 30/10/2026 02:30 |
| Local wind forecast model | Current | 0:08:40 | 30/10/2026 06:17 |
| External forecast inputs | Current | 0:10:25 | 30/10/2026 06:15 |
Experimental Ravenspoint model
Four-hour wind forecast accuracy
These are live results from forecasts published on the landing page, checked against subsequent Ravenspoint observations. The system now favours whichever input has recently performed best. Lower error figures are better.
| Forecast | Assessed | 7-day wind error | 30-day wind error | Trend | Gust error | Direction error | Met Office wind error | Sailing decisions | Range coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 hour | 366 | 1.6 kt | 1.6 kt | Collecting | 2.6 kt | 11° | 2.3 kt | 89% exact; safety score 96% (8 unsafe suitable calls) | 50%: 51% of 366 80%: 90% of 366 |
| +2 hours | 366 | 2.4 kt | 2.4 kt | Collecting | 3.0 kt | 16° | 2.5 kt | 82% exact; safety score 94% (11 unsafe suitable calls) | 50%: 43% of 366 80%: 78% of 366 |
| +3 hours | 366 | 2.6 kt | 2.6 kt | Collecting | 3.0 kt | 19° | 2.4 kt | 80% exact; safety score 94% (11 unsafe suitable calls) | 50%: 37% of 366 80%: 74% of 366 |
| +4 hours | 367 | 2.5 kt | 2.5 kt | Collecting | 2.9 kt | 20° | 2.4 kt | 78% exact; safety score 93% (13 unsafe suitable calls) | 50%: 35% of 367 80%: 72% of 367 |
2200 forecast outcomes assessed in total. Unsafe “suitable” calls carry five times the penalty of an ordinary classification error. Forecast ranges target 80% coverage.
Model safeguard: candidate 20261030T013224Z-584527c3 was held back. candidate must improve composite error by at least 2%: 4.53 versus required 4.39
Forecast data quality
Healthy Latest observation age: 7 minutes · Excluded implausible rows: 31 · Units: metric-normalised-v2.
Weather regime: Showery / unstable.
Safety guard active Local model remains within the live safety limit. Comparisons: 2200; local unsafe suitable calls: 89; persistence: 89.
Upstream model-feature archive: 81.3 days; RAF Valley 3935 records; Met Office land 1803 records. Enabled for training
Met Office revision archive: 6709 snapshots, 1549 changed forecast versions and 333886 timestamped forecast rows retained.
Current upstream changes: RAF Valley rising +2.0 kt; Met Office land stations steady -0.7 kt. Upstream changes remain shadow inputs until the 60-day readiness gate is met.
Current forecast decision audit
| Horizon | Selected source | Weights | Excluded | Reason | Change outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | historicalDifferential, metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +2h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | historicalDifferential, metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +3h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +4h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +5h | local | local 85%, persistence 15% | metOffice | local had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
| +6h | metOffice | metOffice 100% | local, corrected, persistence | metOffice had the lowest recency-weighted error; sources more than 8% worse were excluded. | Steady; direction shift 0% |
Direct gust and change models
Accuracy by observed wind direction (30 days)
| Direction | Assessed | Wind error | Gust error | Direction error | 80% error allowance | Range coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | 18 | 0.7 kt | 0.9 kt | 104° | ±1.5 kt | 50%: 94% of 18 80%: 100% of 18 |
| SE | 529 | 1.9 kt | 2.0 kt | 16° | ±2.8 kt | 50%: 26% of 529 80%: 54% of 529 |
| S | 749 | 2.3 kt | 2.9 kt | 15° | ±3.8 kt | 50%: 47% of 749 80%: 80% of 749 |
| SW | 832 | 2.7 kt | 3.4 kt | 16° | ±4.4 kt | 50%: 38% of 832 80%: 87% of 832 |
| W | 36 | 3.1 kt | 3.6 kt | 29° | ±5.3 kt | 50%: 39% of 36 80%: 97% of 36 |
| NW | 36 | 2.0 kt | 2.1 kt | 77° | ±3.1 kt | 50%: 56% of 36 80%: 94% of 36 |
Direction-calibration safeguards
Nearby-station lead analysis
Positive lead means the nearby station changes before Ravenspoint.
| Station | Best lead | Correlation | Samples | Repeatable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Met Office Isle of Anglesey | 30 min | 0.92 | 487 | Yes |
| RAF Valley | 0 min | 0.91 | 991 | Yes |
| Met Office Gwynedd | 45 min | 0.89 | 487 | Yes |
| Met Office Conwy | 0 min | 0.85 | 489 | Yes |
Recent model candidates
Met Office warning feed
Current Source: NSWWS API · Active warnings: 0 · Last checked: 1 minutes ago.
Three-hour trend indicator accuracy
This is a separate rolling seven-day check of the “increasing, steady or falling” message shown with live wind. It is not the six-hour forecasting model above.
| Forecasts assessed | 168 |
|---|---|
| Fully correct | 70 (42%) |
| Trend direction correct | 45% |
| Average wind-strength error | 5.6 kt |
| 18-knot threshold correct | 88% |