Trearddur Bay sailing weather

Live wind at Ravenspoint

Roof-level observations from the Davis Vantage Pro weather station.

N SSW 202°
Wind now 20 knots
Gust · last hour 36.5 knots 01:54 · SW
Today's max gust 43.4 knots 00:46 · S
1-hour average 19.9 knots From SSW

3-hour wind trend: Falling (-1.8 kt/h)

It is probably going to be too windy to sail this morning.

24-hour comparison

Wind now / 24 hours ago20 / 10.4 knots
Gust now / 24 hours ago36.5 / 14.8 knots
Today's average20 knots from 202°

Full sailing conditions and forecast →

Local Forecast Model Details

This page contains the detailed Ravenspoint experimental forecast, uncertainty ranges, provider comparisons and official Met Office wind guidance. For a quicker sailing decision, use the sailing weather summary.

Met Office weather warnings

Trearddur Bay

No active weather warnings for Trearddur Bay.

Weather warnings supplied by the Met Office.

Ravenspoint experimental nowcast

Local six-hour wind forecast

Generated from the Davis station's recent wind, gust, direction, pressure, temperature and humidity patterns, with Met Office guidance used as a secondary input.

Confidence
Established

Forecast current: updated 14 minutes ago.

Why this confidence: Supported by a substantial archive and consistent recent live verification.

Current weather pattern: Showery / unstable. Forecast weighting is checked against outcomes from similar conditions when enough examples exist.

Model still learning: This is an experimental local forecast. Do not use it as the sole basis for sailing decisions; check current conditions and the official forecast.

Sailing outlook: No clearly suitable period; least risky conditions are around 07:10. Based on the forecast range, gust risk and the 18-knot threshold.
03:10 Likely unsuitable 19.7 kt · gust 35.8 kt · SSW Likely unsuitable because expected wind is 19.7 kt and gusts may reach 35.8 kt and upper wind range reaches 22.0 kt.
04:10 Likely unsuitable 18.4 kt · gust 28.4 kt · WNW Likely unsuitable because expected wind is 18.4 kt and gusts may reach 28.4 kt and upper wind range reaches 20.8 kt.
05:10 Marginal 14.8 kt · gust 23.6 kt · W Marginal because upper wind range reaches 18.4 kt.
06:10 Marginal 13.8 kt · gust 21.0 kt · W Marginal because upper wind range reaches 18.4 kt.
07:10 Likely suitable 14.3 kt · gust 21.3 kt · W Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
08:10 Marginal 15.9 kt · gust 22.5 kt · W Marginal because upper wind range reaches 18.0 kt.
Likely unsuitable +1 hour 03:10
SSW
19.7 kt wind35.8 kt gust
Most likely: 18.9–21.2 kt central 50% Possible: 17.9–22.0 kt safety range, 80% Moderate agreement · 231 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 100% · ≥20 kt 99% · ≥25 kt 98% · ≥30 kt 79% Change: Steady (+0.5 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Weaker by 1.4 kt Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Likely unsuitable +2 hours 04:10
WNW
18.4 kt wind28.4 kt gust
Most likely: 16.2–18.7 kt central 50% Possible: 14.5–20.8 kt safety range, 80% Significant disagreement · 55 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 99% · ≥20 kt 99% · ≥25 kt 95% · ≥30 kt 73% Change: Steady (-0.8 kt) · direction-shift risk 100% Since previous run: Stronger by 1.0 kt Blend: locally corrected Met Office 100%
Marginal +3 hours 05:10
W
14.8 kt wind23.6 kt gust
Most likely: 12.5–15.0 kt central 50% Possible: 7.5–18.4 kt safety range, 80% Significant disagreement · 55 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 99% · ≥20 kt 97% · ≥25 kt 90% · ≥30 kt 77% Change: Falling (-4.4 kt) · direction-shift risk 100% Since previous run: Little change from the previous run Blend: locally corrected Met Office 100%
Marginal +4 hours 06:10
W
13.8 kt wind21.0 kt gust
Most likely: 11.3–14.4 kt central 50% Possible: 5.5–18.4 kt safety range, 80% Significant disagreement · 55 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 98% · ≥20 kt 97% · ≥25 kt 80% · ≥30 kt 67% Change: Rapidly decreasing (-5.4 kt) · direction-shift risk 100% Since previous run: Similar strength by 0.3 kt Blend: locally corrected Met Office 100%
Likely suitable +5 hours 07:10
W
14.3 kt wind21.3 kt gust
Most likely: 12.3–14.8 kt central 50% Possible: 10.9–16.1 kt safety range, 80% Moderate agreement · 54 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 97% · ≥20 kt 94% · ≥25 kt 74% · ≥30 kt 58% Change: Falling (-5.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 100% Since previous run: Stronger by 0.6 kt Blend: locally corrected Met Office 85%, Met Office 15%
Marginal +6 hours 08:10
W
15.9 kt wind22.5 kt gust
Most likely: 14.3–16.3 kt central 50% Possible: 11.7–18.0 kt safety range, 80% Moderate agreement · 54 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 95% · ≥20 kt 92% · ≥25 kt 73% · ≥30 kt 52% Change: Falling (-3.4 kt) · direction-shift risk 100% Since previous run: Similar strength by 0.4 kt Blend: Met Office 85%, locally corrected Met Office 15%

Ravenspoint compared with Met Office

Wind speed in knots. The recent error row uses scored live outcomes for each forecast horizon.

+1h Ravenspoint 19.7 Met Office 21.4 Recent error: 1.6 kt local / 1.7 kt Met Office
+2h Ravenspoint 18.4 Met Office 18.7 Recent error: 1.8 kt local / 1.7 kt Met Office
+3h Ravenspoint 14.8 Met Office 15.0 Recent error: 1.9 kt local / 1.7 kt Met Office
+4h Ravenspoint 13.8 Met Office 14.0 Recent error: 1.9 kt local / 1.7 kt Met Office
+5h Ravenspoint 14.3 Met Office 14.5 Recent error: 1.9 kt local / 1.7 kt Met Office
+6h Ravenspoint 15.9 Met Office 15.9 Recent error: 2.0 kt local / 1.7 kt Met Office

Training archive: 3,058 days · Forecast outcomes scored: 2200 · Updated 02:17

Met Office probabilistic guidance

Wind forecast spread

The central forecast and likely 10th–90th percentile range for Trearddur Bay. A wider spread means a wider range of plausible wind speeds.

Forecast spread
Wide

Guidance current: updated 14 minutes ago. The last valid forecast remains visible if the Met Office feed is temporarily unavailable.

Wide spread: the likely wind range averages 10.1 kt wide over the first four hours. This describes forecast uncertainty, not feed reliability or overall Met Office accuracy.

03:00
15.9 kt wind
Likely 10.0–21.0 kt
30.1 kt gust
Likely 28.6–33.0 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 29%Gust ≥25 kt 100%
04:00
14.0 kt wind
Likely 9.0–19.4 kt
29.3 kt gust
Likely 26.2–31.7 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 18%Gust ≥25 kt 100%
05:00
12.0 kt wind
Likely 7.0–16.9 kt
26.5 kt gust
Likely 22.7–29.0 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 4%Gust ≥25 kt 84%
06:00
11.1 kt wind
Likely 6.0–14.9 kt
22.7 kt gust
Likely 19.9–26.0 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 20%
07:00
11.1 kt wind
Likely 6.1–15.1 kt
21.3 kt gust
Likely 19.1–24.9 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 9%
08:00
12.0 kt wind
Likely 7.0–16.9 kt
22.8 kt gust
Likely 20.8–26.4 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 4%Gust ≥25 kt 20%

Forecasts checked against Ravenspoint observations: 15228. Accuracy is tracked separately by forecast horizon.

Probabilistic guidance is not a guarantee. Check live conditions before sailing.

Met Office Global Spot forecast

Trearddur Bay wind forecast

Hourly wind and gust forecast for the next 48 hours. Speeds are shown in knots.

Model run
15 Sep, 01:00 UTC
DateTimeDirectionWindGustWeatherRain
Tue 15 Sep 02:00 SW 25 kt 33 kt Cloudy 13%
Tue 15 Sep 03:00 SW 21 kt 31 kt Heavy shower 74%
Tue 15 Sep 04:00 WNW 19 kt 27 kt Overcast 13%
Tue 15 Sep 05:00 W 15 kt 22 kt Clear 2%
Tue 15 Sep 06:00 W 14 kt 20 kt Clear 0%
Tue 15 Sep 07:00 W 14 kt 20 kt Partly cloudy 0%
Tue 15 Sep 08:00 W 16 kt 22 kt Partly cloudy 1%
Tue 15 Sep 09:00 W 16 kt 22 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Tue 15 Sep 10:00 W 16 kt 23 kt Sunny 2%
Tue 15 Sep 11:00 W 17 kt 23 kt Sunny 1%
Tue 15 Sep 12:00 W 16 kt 22 kt Sunny 1%
Tue 15 Sep 13:00 W 16 kt 22 kt Cloudy 5%
Tue 15 Sep 14:00 W 16 kt 23 kt Partly cloudy 1%
Tue 15 Sep 15:00 W 16 kt 22 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Tue 15 Sep 16:00 W 15 kt 21 kt Sunny 3%
Tue 15 Sep 17:00 WNW 15 kt 21 kt Partly cloudy 4%
Tue 15 Sep 18:00 WNW 13 kt 19 kt Partly cloudy 4%
Tue 15 Sep 19:00 WNW 13 kt 19 kt Cloudy 7%
Tue 15 Sep 20:00 NW 13 kt 19 kt Cloudy 6%
Tue 15 Sep 21:00 NW 14 kt 21 kt Partly cloudy 1%
Tue 15 Sep 22:00 NW 14 kt 21 kt Clear 2%
Tue 15 Sep 23:00 NW 15 kt 22 kt Cloudy 5%
Wed 16 Sep 00:00 NW 15 kt 22 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Wed 16 Sep 01:00 NW 15 kt 22 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Wed 16 Sep 02:00 NW 15 kt 23 kt Partly cloudy 3%
Wed 16 Sep 03:00 NW 15 kt 23 kt Cloudy 6%
Wed 16 Sep 04:00 NW 15 kt 22 kt Cloudy 6%
Wed 16 Sep 05:00 NW 15 kt 22 kt Cloudy 7%
Wed 16 Sep 06:00 NW 14 kt 21 kt Partly cloudy 3%
Wed 16 Sep 07:00 NW 14 kt 21 kt Cloudy 6%
Wed 16 Sep 08:00 NW 14 kt 21 kt Partly cloudy 3%
Wed 16 Sep 09:00 WNW 14 kt 20 kt Cloudy 6%
Wed 16 Sep 10:00 WNW 13 kt 19 kt Cloudy 6%
Wed 16 Sep 11:00 WNW 13 kt 19 kt Cloudy 6%
Wed 16 Sep 12:00 WNW 12 kt 18 kt Cloudy 5%
Wed 16 Sep 13:00 WNW 12 kt 17 kt Cloudy 5%
Wed 16 Sep 14:00 W 12 kt 17 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Wed 16 Sep 15:00 W 11 kt 16 kt Partly cloudy 1%
Wed 16 Sep 16:00 WSW 11 kt 17 kt Cloudy 4%
Wed 16 Sep 17:00 WSW 12 kt 17 kt Cloudy 5%
Wed 16 Sep 18:00 SW 13 kt 19 kt Cloudy 5%
Wed 16 Sep 19:00 SW 14 kt 20 kt Cloudy 5%
Wed 16 Sep 20:00 SW 16 kt 23 kt Cloudy 15%
Wed 16 Sep 21:00 SW 16 kt 23 kt Overcast 10%
Wed 16 Sep 22:00 SW 17 kt 24 kt Cloudy 7%
Wed 16 Sep 23:00 SW 18 kt 26 kt Cloudy 15%
Thu 17 Sep 00:00 SW 19 kt 27 kt Heavy rain 82%
Thu 17 Sep 01:00 SW 20 kt 28 kt Heavy rain 82%
Gusts 18–24 ktGusts 25+ kt

Forecast data © Crown copyright Met Office. Full official Trearddur Bay forecast →