Trearddur Bay sailing weather

Live wind at Ravenspoint

Roof-level observations from the Davis Vantage Pro weather station.

N SSE 158°
Wind now 16 knots
Gust · last hour 24.3 knots 05:46 · SE
Today's max gust 29.5 knots 02:14 · SE
1-hour average 13.9 knots From SSE

3-hour wind trend: Steady (-0.2 kt/h)

24-hour comparison

Wind now / 24 hours ago16 / 10.4 knots
Gust now / 24 hours ago24.3 / 16.5 knots
Today's average16 knots from 158°

Full sailing conditions and forecast →

Local Forecast Model Details

This page contains the detailed Ravenspoint experimental forecast, uncertainty ranges, provider comparisons and official Met Office wind guidance. For a quicker sailing decision, use the sailing weather summary.

Met Office weather warnings

Trearddur Bay

No active weather warnings for Trearddur Bay.

Weather warnings supplied by the Met Office.

Ravenspoint experimental nowcast

Local six-hour wind forecast

Generated from the Davis station's recent wind, gust, direction, pressure, temperature and humidity patterns, with Met Office guidance used as a secondary input.

Confidence
Established

Forecast current: updated 12 minutes ago.

Why this confidence: Supported by a substantial archive and consistent recent live verification.

Current weather pattern: Showery / unstable. Forecast weighting is checked against outcomes from similar conditions when enough examples exist.

Model still learning: This is an experimental local forecast. Do not use it as the sole basis for sailing decisions; check current conditions and the official forecast.

Sailing outlook: No clearly suitable period; least risky conditions are around 07:10. Based on the forecast range, gust risk and the 18-knot threshold.
07:10 Likely suitable 13.8 kt · gust 21.7 kt · SSE Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
08:10 Marginal 14.9 kt · gust 22.5 kt · SSE Marginal because upper wind range reaches 20.6 kt.
09:10 Marginal 15.1 kt · gust 22.2 kt · SSE Marginal because upper wind range reaches 20.9 kt.
10:10 Marginal 15.2 kt · gust 22.2 kt · SSE Marginal because upper wind range reaches 20.6 kt.
11:10 Marginal 15.0 kt · gust 22.0 kt · SSE Marginal because upper wind range reaches 19.6 kt.
12:10 Likely suitable 15.2 kt · gust 21.3 kt · S Upper wind range remains below 18 kt and gusts remain below 25 kt.
Likely suitable +1 hour 07:10
SSE
13.8 kt wind21.7 kt gust
Most likely: 12.8–15.6 kt central 50% Possible: 12.0–16.2 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 88 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 97% · ≥20 kt 88% · ≥25 kt 39% · ≥30 kt 2% Change: Steady (+0.0 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Weaker by 0.8 kt Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Marginal +2 hours 08:10
SSE
14.9 kt wind22.5 kt gust
Most likely: 15.0–19.2 kt central 50% Possible: 11.6–20.6 kt safety range, 80% Moderate agreement · 88 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 95% · ≥20 kt 87% · ≥25 kt 34% · ≥30 kt 3% Change: Steady (+1.1 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Weaker by 0.8 kt Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Marginal +3 hours 09:10
SSE
15.1 kt wind22.2 kt gust
Most likely: 15.5–18.4 kt central 50% Possible: 13.9–20.9 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 88 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 95% · ≥20 kt 84% · ≥25 kt 42% · ≥30 kt 6% Change: Steady (+1.3 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Weaker by 0.8 kt Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Marginal +4 hours 10:10
SSE
15.2 kt wind22.2 kt gust
Most likely: 16.0–18.6 kt central 50% Possible: 14.1–20.6 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 89 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 94% · ≥20 kt 89% · ≥25 kt 42% · ≥30 kt 10% Change: Steady (+1.4 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Weaker by 0.8 kt Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Marginal +5 hours 11:10
SSE
15.0 kt wind22.0 kt gust
Most likely: 15.7–18.8 kt central 50% Possible: 13.8–19.6 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 89 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 93% · ≥20 kt 87% · ≥25 kt 29% · ≥30 kt 9% Change: Steady (+1.2 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Weaker by 0.8 kt Blend: experimental model 85%, recent wind 15%
Likely suitable +6 hours 12:10
S
15.2 kt wind21.3 kt gust
Most likely: 10.5–14.9 kt central 50% Possible: 9.6–16.8 kt safety range, 80% Strong agreement · 127 direction-matched results Gust risk: ≥18 kt 91% · ≥20 kt 81% · ≥25 kt 23% · ≥30 kt 10% Change: Steady (+1.4 kt) · direction-shift risk 0% Since previous run: Similar strength by 0.3 kt Blend: Met Office 100%

Ravenspoint compared with Met Office

Wind speed in knots. The recent error row uses scored live outcomes for each forecast horizon.

+1h Ravenspoint 13.8 Met Office 12.6 Recent error: 1.6 kt local / 2.3 kt Met Office
+2h Ravenspoint 14.9 Met Office 12.5 Recent error: 2.4 kt local / 2.5 kt Met Office
+3h Ravenspoint 15.1 Met Office 13.2 Recent error: 2.6 kt local / 2.4 kt Met Office
+4h Ravenspoint 15.2 Met Office 14.6 Recent error: 2.5 kt local / 2.4 kt Met Office
+5h Ravenspoint 15.0 Met Office 14.8 Recent error: 2.6 kt local / 2.4 kt Met Office
+6h Ravenspoint 15.2 Met Office 14.0 Recent error: 2.5 kt local / 2.3 kt Met Office

Training archive: 3,100 days · Forecast outcomes scored: 2200 · Updated 06:17

Met Office probabilistic guidance

Wind forecast spread

The central forecast and likely 10th–90th percentile range for Trearddur Bay. A wider spread means a wider range of plausible wind speeds.

Forecast spread
Wide

Guidance current: updated 12 minutes ago. The last valid forecast remains visible if the Met Office feed is temporarily unavailable.

Wide spread: the likely wind range averages 11.6 kt wide over the first four hours. This describes forecast uncertainty, not feed reliability or overall Met Office accuracy.

07:00
10.0 kt wind
Likely 5.1–15.6 kt
22.1 kt gust
Likely 20.3–23.3 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 0%Gust ≥25 kt 1%
08:00
10.0 kt wind
Likely 6.1–16.9 kt
22.6 kt gust
Likely 21.6–24.3 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 5%Gust ≥25 kt 3%
09:00
11.1 kt wind
Likely 6.1–19.1 kt
22.7 kt gust
Likely 21.6–24.8 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 9%Gust ≥25 kt 8%
10:00
12.0 kt wind
Likely 7.0–19.1 kt
23.8 kt gust
Likely 21.7–26.0 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 13%Gust ≥25 kt 23%
11:00
13.0 kt wind
Likely 8.0–19.1 kt
24.4 kt gust
Likely 22.6–26.2 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 13%Gust ≥25 kt 29%
12:00
12.0 kt wind
Likely 8.0–17.5 kt
23.7 kt gust
Likely 21.9–24.9 kt
Wind ≥18 kt 8%Gust ≥25 kt 9%

Forecasts checked against Ravenspoint observations: 35700. Accuracy is tracked separately by forecast horizon.

Probabilistic guidance is not a guarantee. Check live conditions before sailing.

Met Office Global Spot forecast

Trearddur Bay wind forecast

Hourly wind and gust forecast for the next 48 hours. Speeds are shown in knots.

Model run
30 Oct, 05:00 UTC
DateTimeDirectionWindGustWeatherRain
Fri 30 Oct 06:00 SSE 14 kt 22 kt Cloudy 4%
Fri 30 Oct 07:00 SSE 13 kt 21 kt Cloudy 4%
Fri 30 Oct 08:00 SSE 12 kt 21 kt Cloudy 5%
Fri 30 Oct 09:00 S 13 kt 22 kt Cloudy 5%
Fri 30 Oct 10:00 S 15 kt 22 kt Cloudy 4%
Fri 30 Oct 11:00 S 15 kt 22 kt Cloudy 4%
Fri 30 Oct 12:00 S 14 kt 21 kt Cloudy 4%
Fri 30 Oct 13:00 S 13 kt 20 kt Cloudy 4%
Fri 30 Oct 14:00 S 12 kt 18 kt Partly cloudy 1%
Fri 30 Oct 15:00 S 10 kt 16 kt Partly cloudy 1%
Fri 30 Oct 16:00 S 8 kt 14 kt Partly cloudy 1%
Fri 30 Oct 17:00 S 7 kt 13 kt Cloudy 5%
Fri 30 Oct 18:00 SSE 6 kt 12 kt Cloudy 4%
Fri 30 Oct 19:00 SSE 6 kt 11 kt Cloudy 5%
Fri 30 Oct 20:00 SSE 6 kt 12 kt Cloudy 5%
Fri 30 Oct 21:00 SSE 6 kt 12 kt Cloudy 7%
Fri 30 Oct 22:00 SSE 6 kt 12 kt Cloudy 7%
Fri 30 Oct 23:00 SSE 6 kt 13 kt Cloudy 5%
Sat 31 Oct 00:00 SSE 7 kt 13 kt Cloudy 5%
Sat 31 Oct 01:00 SSE 6 kt 12 kt Cloudy 6%
Sat 31 Oct 02:00 SSE 6 kt 11 kt Cloudy 6%
Sat 31 Oct 03:00 SE 5 kt 10 kt Cloudy 5%
Sat 31 Oct 04:00 SSE 5 kt 10 kt Cloudy 5%
Sat 31 Oct 05:00 SE 5 kt 9 kt Cloudy 5%
Sat 31 Oct 06:00 SE 5 kt 9 kt Cloudy 5%
Sat 31 Oct 07:00 SE 5 kt 8 kt Cloudy 4%
Sat 31 Oct 08:00 SE 5 kt 9 kt Partly cloudy 2%
Sat 31 Oct 09:00 SSE 5 kt 9 kt Partly cloudy 1%
Sat 31 Oct 10:00 S 5 kt 9 kt Sunny 0%
Sat 31 Oct 11:00 S 7 kt 10 kt Sunny 1%
Sat 31 Oct 12:00 SSW 7 kt 11 kt Sunny 1%
Sat 31 Oct 13:00 SSW 8 kt 11 kt Sunny 0%
Sat 31 Oct 14:00 SSW 7 kt 10 kt Sunny 0%
Sat 31 Oct 15:00 SSW 7 kt 10 kt Sunny 0%
Sat 31 Oct 16:00 SSW 6 kt 9 kt Sunny 0%
Sat 31 Oct 17:00 SW 6 kt 9 kt Clear 0%
Sat 31 Oct 18:00 SSW 5 kt 8 kt Clear 1%
Sat 31 Oct 19:00 SW 5 kt 7 kt Clear 5%
Sat 31 Oct 20:00 SW 5 kt 7 kt Partly cloudy 3%
Sat 31 Oct 21:00 SSW 5 kt 7 kt Mist 16%
Sat 31 Oct 22:00 SW 4 kt 6 kt Mist 16%
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 SW 4 kt 6 kt Fog 18%
Sun 1 Nov 00:00 SW 4 kt 7 kt Fog 17%
Sun 1 Nov 01:00 WSW 5 kt 7 kt Cloudy 16%
Sun 1 Nov 02:00 N 6 kt 11 kt Drizzle 33%
Sun 1 Nov 03:00 NNE 8 kt 14 kt Drizzle 34%
Sun 1 Nov 04:00 N 9 kt 14 kt Cloudy 13%
Sun 1 Nov 05:00 NNE 10 kt 16 kt Overcast 13%
Gusts 18–24 ktGusts 25+ kt

Forecast data © Crown copyright Met Office. Full official Trearddur Bay forecast →